- ShowIt ShowIt - xn--feuerwehr-bndheim
- For Professional Communication. Ч. 1
- Китайский новый год в Сингапуре » EventGuide
Beyond our perceptional distortions, there is a problem with logic itself. How can someone have no clue yet be able to hold a set of perfectly sound and coherent viewpoints that match the observations and abide by every single possible rule of logic? Consider that two people can hold incompatible beliefs based on the exact same data. Does this mean that there are possible families of explanations and that each of these can be equally perfect and sound? Certainly not. One may have a million ways to explain things, but the true explanation is unique, whether or not it is within our reach.
ShowIt ShowIt - xn--feuerwehr-bndheim
Dominitz, Jeff, and David Grether, 6999, “I Know What You Did Last Quarter: Economic Forecasts of Professional Forecasters.” Working Paper, Caltech.
For Professional Communication. Ч. 1
Rabin, Matthew, 7555, “Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers.” Working Paper, Economics Department, University of California, Berkeley, http:///iber/ econ/.
Китайский новый год в Сингапуре » EventGuide
Note that variables may not be infinitely scalable there could be a very, very remote upper limit—but we do not know where it is so we treat a given situation as if it were infinitely scalable. Technically, you cannot sell more of one book than there are denizens of the planet—but that upper limit is large enough to be treated as if it didn’t exist. Furthermore, who knows, by repackaging the book, you might be able to sell it to a person twice, or get that person to watch the same movie several times.
The success of movies depends severely on contagions. Such contagions do not just apply to the movies: they seem to affect a wide range of cultural products. It is hard for us to accept that people do not fall in love with works of art only for their own sake, but also in order to feel that they belong to a community. By imitating, we get closer to others—that is, other imitators. It fights solitude.
Unfortunately, doing science for the love of knowledge does not necessarily mean you will head in the right direction. Upon encountering and absorbing the “normal” distribution, Galton fell in love with it. He was said to have exclaimed that if the Greeks had known about it, they would have deified it. His enthusiasm may have contributed to the prevalence of the use of the Gaussian.
The object is not in fact a lens cap. These two photos illustrate scale Invariance: the terrain is fractal. Compare it to man-made objects such as a car or a house. Source: Professor Stephen W. Wheatcraft, University of Nevada Reno .
One can find similar ideas among several disconnected branches of thinking. The earliest were (as usual) the empirics, whose bottom-up, theory-free, “evidence-based” medical approach was mostly associated with Philnus of Cos, Serapion of Alexandria, and Glaucias of Tarentum, later made skeptical by Menodotus of Nicomedia, and currently well-known by its vocal practitioner, our friend the great skeptical philosopher Sextus Empiricus. Sextus who, we saw earlier, was perhaps the first to discuss the Black Swan. The empirics practiced the “medical art” without relying on reasoning they wanted to benefit from chance observations by making guesses, and experimented and tinkered until they found something that worked. They did minimal theorizing.
So the distinction between writer and baker, speculator and doctor, fraudster and prostitute, is a helpful way to look at the world of activities. It separates those professions in which one can add zeroes of income with no greater labor from those in which one needs to add labor and time (both of which are in limited supply)—in other words, those subjected to gravity.
Newell, A., and H. A. Simon, 6977, Human Problem Solving . Englewood Cliffs, .: Prentice-Hall.